Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

by Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner et al.
The Lancet Global Health, 2016 – Published Online October 6, 2016

10 pp. 532 kB
http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/langlo/PIIS2214-109X(16)30199-1.pdfcov200h

The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. The authors aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. They conclude that major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level.

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