Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study

by Brian G Williams, Somya Gupta, Matthew Wollmers et al.
The Lancet Public Health – Published: 10 April 2017

8 pp. 692 kB
http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanpub/PIIS2468-2667(17)30066-X.pdf

In September, 2016, South Africa adopted a policy of providing antiretroviral treatment to everyone infected with HIV irrespective of their CD4 cell count. Studies of universal treatment and expanded prevention of HIV differ widely in their projections of effects and the associated costs, so the authors did this analysis to attempt to find a consensus. They conclude that South Africa is on track to reduce HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality substantially by 2030, saving both lives and money. Success will depend on high rates of HIV testing, ART delivery and adherence, good patient monitoring and support, and data to monitor progress.

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