Horizon 2025 revisited
by Homi Kharas and Andrew Rogerson
Overseas Development Institute, October 2017
The socio-political phenomena that have materialised since 2012, when we first looked at the future of the development industry, have changed the aid landscape in ways that were not then imagined. There are now more people living in poverty in fragile states than in other developing countries, and their numbers are growing due to stagnant economies coupled with fast-growing populations. There is an optimistic message about the relatively small investment need to close the poverty gap in developing countries. We should channel aid through middle-income countries, whenever it is appropriate to cover effective management of major regional and global spillover effects. Chinese development efforts are setting new benchmarks against which Western aid agencies will be increasingly judged in terms of motivation (mutual benefit), efficiency, and perhaps effectiveness.