Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis

by David M Pigott, Aniruddha Deshpande, Ian Letourneau et al.
The Lancet, Published Online: October 11, 2017

11 pp. 11.0 MB
http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32092-5.pdf

Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, the authors developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.

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